The accounted make-the-world-a-better-place budget summaries are:
#1) Green Party: $181.1B (corrected from $172B)
#2) Liberal Party: $44.8B
#3) NDP: $44.5B
#4) Bloc Quebecois: $15.0B
#5) Conservative Party: $7.9B
Of note, the environmental externalities were (pre-debt payment adjustment) $150B, $31B, $23B, $12B, $1B, for the above 5 parties. Take away this and the approximate pre-debt payment adjustment rankings are:
#1) Green Party: $22B
#2) NDP: $21B
#3) Liberals: $13B
#4) Conservatives: $7B
#5) Bloc: $3B
The Green Party's foreign aid expenditure was $7B higher than nearest competitor.
The Bloc had the highest mental health and affordable housing (anti-homelessness) expenditures at $5.5B, with Greens at $4.1B and NDP a respectable $2.6B.
Greens the only party for THC legalization.
Liberals R+D budget $4.2B, Conservatives $2.4B, and Bloc $1.4B.
Greens and NDP keep corporate taxes high; good while sindustries rule.
Greens would spend $6.6B on childcare, NDP close with $5.8B, and Liberals at $3.7B.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
problems with this methodology
Externality Accounting accounts the % of federal debt repayment over a 3 year budget, and assigns twice this as a multiplier (or divider where increasing debt) to expenditures estimated to return at least 15% or so annually.
These expenditures are limited by my knowledge base and time available to track down research that estimates ROIs. For instance, freeing up hospital beds is likely high ROI but I just don't have the time to account nursing home and homecare platform strategies.
One way to "game" this methodology is to transfer costs to provincial, municipal, and personal budgets. High ROI expenditures like public transit are municipal expenditures; I should be accounting a fraction of cash given to cities as an externality.
My only discount formula here rests upon the debt interest rate. This is a rather arbitrary way to measure societal capital depreciation/appreciation and time preference discounting, but is a problem in all of economics and finance.
Haven't considered marginal gains of investment. Canada needs $76B more of transit funding, but for instance, the Green Party's extensive environmental costing might be coming close to approaching the limit of where environmental capital is undercosted.
It is evident some of these budgets were hurried. A little more detail to Liberal and NDP infrastructure expenditures would raise their externaility totals. The Conservatives haven't forwarded a budget. The Bloc would presumably export daycare to all of Canada. There are many other law changes that I don't know how to cost in terms of money.
These expenditures are limited by my knowledge base and time available to track down research that estimates ROIs. For instance, freeing up hospital beds is likely high ROI but I just don't have the time to account nursing home and homecare platform strategies.
One way to "game" this methodology is to transfer costs to provincial, municipal, and personal budgets. High ROI expenditures like public transit are municipal expenditures; I should be accounting a fraction of cash given to cities as an externality.
My only discount formula here rests upon the debt interest rate. This is a rather arbitrary way to measure societal capital depreciation/appreciation and time preference discounting, but is a problem in all of economics and finance.
Haven't considered marginal gains of investment. Canada needs $76B more of transit funding, but for instance, the Green Party's extensive environmental costing might be coming close to approaching the limit of where environmental capital is undercosted.
It is evident some of these budgets were hurried. A little more detail to Liberal and NDP infrastructure expenditures would raise their externaility totals. The Conservatives haven't forwarded a budget. The Bloc would presumably export daycare to all of Canada. There are many other law changes that I don't know how to cost in terms of money.
NDP 2008 platform externalities
NDP financial calender starts Apr/2009, so I'll push back their 3 yr budget 5 months to encompass Nov/08-Oct/11. http://www.ndp.ca/page/6984 source. NDP project a $12.21B surplus in their easy-to-read budget tables. But $6.9B of this is listed as "adjustment for programme overspending"; I'll ignore. In their budget tables, they claim 1/2 the surplus for infrastructure and 1/2 for paying down debt. This is a little less vague than the Liberal infrastructure spending commitment, but doesn't list specific infrastructure priorities, only some of qwhich I consider high ROI, so I'll ignore this. $2.655B in debt repayment is 0.58199% of $456.191B federal debt, yielding an externality bonus multiplier of 1.16398%.
NDP will raise additional corporate tax revenue of $26.9B. As described in Green Party externality account, good industry profits minus sindustries equal 21.8615% of Canadian 2007 profits were sin. So $26.9 x 21.8615% is $5.8807435B in NDP corporate tax externalities.
THC decriminalization, $1.2B.
1/3 of childtax benefit is high ROI (0-6 yrs old): so $1.166666B of $3.5B increased child tax credit is 1x externality. $4.65B daycare.
$2.5B homelessness fighting affordable housing. 1/2 of $150M for mental illness and drug initiatives; fighting mental illnesses fights homelessness so $75M.
$1.2B public transit at 2x, 1/2 tallied under transit. $30M producer co-ops; I've listed a similiar programme in Conservative budget under healthcare, it could even belong under agriculture. $10.9B cap-and-trade auction proceeds. Another $1.55B transit at 2x, 1/2 tallied under transit. Industry innovation and enviro-sector strategies, $2.88B. Green jobs, $2.25B. $30M sustainable agriculture: I like banning terminators at 2x, hate going organic at -2x, and like sustainable practises at 1x. So count $10M at 1x under environment (there is another budget table listed as $750M for manfacturing and agriculture, but I can't find these in the budget description, maybe listed erroneously as forestry and fisheries; I'll assume agriculture spending listed under the 3 bullets on page 14 is only $10M annually). Alternative energy and retrofits, $1.6B. Assuming $800M is for 2x retrofits that pay for themselves rapidly, and $800M for 1x alternative energy. Water, Parks and conservation, $470M. I don't consider municipal water to be an environmental externality unless noticably deficient, but these programmes are accompanied by a water audit. Described "individual and small business incentives", $1.5B at 1x. Ignoring vague "other measures" $650M.
$1.2B transit at 2x, 1/2 tallied under environment. Another $1.55B transit, 1/2 tallied under environment.
$150M for national literacy strategy arbitrarily at 1x. The only education externality I've listed.
$300M for R+D: research grants.
$3B Kelowna Accord, 14% of which I've accounted from INAC budget funds externalities: $420M.
$1.5B foreign aid increase.
$240M children nutrition programme seems like a high ROI healthcare externality, 1x. $150M Healthy living strategy is nice but too vague. Homecare transfers might reduce load on expensive hospital beds, but this isn't specified. Like the idea of buying generic drugs and bulk drugs, but nothing mentioned how to ensure excess stocks won't be overprescribed/wasted.
corporate tax externalities: $5.8807435B
Childcare: $5.816666B
Anti-homelessness: $2.575B
Environment: $23.19B
Foreign Aid: $1.5B
Kelowna Accord externalities: $420M
R+D: $300M
Education: $150M
Transit: $2.75B
Healthcare: 240M
THC: $1.2B
$44.022409B in positive NDP externalities mulitplied by 101.16398% debt paydown bonus is: $44 534 821 000 in externalities.
NDP will raise additional corporate tax revenue of $26.9B. As described in Green Party externality account, good industry profits minus sindustries equal 21.8615% of Canadian 2007 profits were sin. So $26.9 x 21.8615% is $5.8807435B in NDP corporate tax externalities.
THC decriminalization, $1.2B.
1/3 of childtax benefit is high ROI (0-6 yrs old): so $1.166666B of $3.5B increased child tax credit is 1x externality. $4.65B daycare.
$2.5B homelessness fighting affordable housing. 1/2 of $150M for mental illness and drug initiatives; fighting mental illnesses fights homelessness so $75M.
$1.2B public transit at 2x, 1/2 tallied under transit. $30M producer co-ops; I've listed a similiar programme in Conservative budget under healthcare, it could even belong under agriculture. $10.9B cap-and-trade auction proceeds. Another $1.55B transit at 2x, 1/2 tallied under transit. Industry innovation and enviro-sector strategies, $2.88B. Green jobs, $2.25B. $30M sustainable agriculture: I like banning terminators at 2x, hate going organic at -2x, and like sustainable practises at 1x. So count $10M at 1x under environment (there is another budget table listed as $750M for manfacturing and agriculture, but I can't find these in the budget description, maybe listed erroneously as forestry and fisheries; I'll assume agriculture spending listed under the 3 bullets on page 14 is only $10M annually). Alternative energy and retrofits, $1.6B. Assuming $800M is for 2x retrofits that pay for themselves rapidly, and $800M for 1x alternative energy. Water, Parks and conservation, $470M. I don't consider municipal water to be an environmental externality unless noticably deficient, but these programmes are accompanied by a water audit. Described "individual and small business incentives", $1.5B at 1x. Ignoring vague "other measures" $650M.
$1.2B transit at 2x, 1/2 tallied under environment. Another $1.55B transit, 1/2 tallied under environment.
$150M for national literacy strategy arbitrarily at 1x. The only education externality I've listed.
$300M for R+D: research grants.
$3B Kelowna Accord, 14% of which I've accounted from INAC budget funds externalities: $420M.
$1.5B foreign aid increase.
$240M children nutrition programme seems like a high ROI healthcare externality, 1x. $150M Healthy living strategy is nice but too vague. Homecare transfers might reduce load on expensive hospital beds, but this isn't specified. Like the idea of buying generic drugs and bulk drugs, but nothing mentioned how to ensure excess stocks won't be overprescribed/wasted.
corporate tax externalities: $5.8807435B
Childcare: $5.816666B
Anti-homelessness: $2.575B
Environment: $23.19B
Foreign Aid: $1.5B
Kelowna Accord externalities: $420M
R+D: $300M
Education: $150M
Transit: $2.75B
Healthcare: 240M
THC: $1.2B
$44.022409B in positive NDP externalities mulitplied by 101.16398% debt paydown bonus is: $44 534 821 000 in externalities.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
2008 Liberal budget externalities
The Liberal platform: www.liberal.ca/platform_e.aspx, is based on four years and I'm assuming three years for the next minority government, so I'll trim all cuts and spending 1/4 unless platform explicitly states year-to-year differences. Also shifting the 2009-10 financial calendar year backwards 5 months to assume Nov-2008 to Oct-2011 time period. Liberals assume a $1.305B surplus over 4 years along with a $12B contingency fund. But this counts $2.24B in additional revenue not recognized by the BofC budget; I'll stick with BofC estimates. Over 3 years this is a $8.29875B surplus, but $1.7B to nebulous infrastructure spending for the last year assuming BofC $4.7B surplus estimate, so $6.59875B to pay down debt. Divided into the $456.191B federal debt baseline is 1.44648%. The 1x externality multiplier debt repayment bonus will be 2.89296%. Liberals have committed any surpluses over $3B to infrastructure, but since they haven't listed the $1.7B portion of the BofC projected 2011-12 for infrastructure on their budget's financial table, and haven't prioritized infrastructure spending (only some of which I consider high ROI), I'll ignore this.
Liberals claim to reduce corporate tax rate 1% below Conservative projections without detailing when. So I'll assume this happens halfway into their 4 yr budget. 2007 corporate taxes at a 22.12% rate and -$22.899B sum of "good" companies minus sindustries yields $1.0352169B in negative externalities per % corporate tax cut per year.
Ending oil sands tax subsidies, 3/4 of $1.2B is $900M. Green Shift carbon tax revenues of $39.975B with 3/5 of revenues in first three years: $23.985B at 1x. 1/2 of $100M budgeted for pollution control and food safety here, 1/2 in healthcare: 3/4 of $50M is $37.5M. 3/4 of $250M to fight Mountain Pine Beetle is huge; the Conservative plan just focused upon post-beetle economic diversification but this plan has elements like creating buffer-zones around cities to protect high-value trees, like what AB is attempting to protect high-value National Parks trees. Conservatively account this $187.5M at 2x. 3/4 of $575M for green mortgage retrofits at 2x: $431.25M. 3/4 of $370M for clean energy is $277.5M. I don't know enough about freshwater supplies to consider it a high ROI; it is lacking on IRs and in NFLD to my knowledge. Of $400M for a freshwater fund, only 1/6 is for freshwater (farm freshwater), the rest is environmental. And this falls under $690M budgeted for clean water, oceans and natural environment. So 3/4 of $290M and 3/4 of 5/6 of $400M is $467.5M. A $1B AMP fund on pg 16 is only budgeted for $875M on pg 69 under "Manufacturing and Transportation", if they are the same thing. I'll go with the latter total. These investments are stated as green and R+D or manufacturing. So a 1.5x multiplier with 3/4 (1x of 1.5x) tallied here and the 0.5x R+D doublecount tallied 3/4 under R+D. $656.25M. 3/4 of $300M to retrofit boats/trucks with green equipment, $225M.
Liberals have suggested in the past decriminalization/legalization and have agriculture funding that alludes to environmental or productivity advances, but nothing specific mentioned. Also ignoring the 10yr $70B Infrastructure funding as I'm not sure if it is to be funded from bond sales or surpluses.
Increased foreign aid, 3/4 of $500M is $375M. Haitian Lymphatic Filariasis elimination; 3/4 of $15M is $11.25M.
3/4 of 1/2 of $100M for pollution control and food safety under healthcare: $37.5M.
3/4 of $9.9B for increased child-tax benefit, 1/3 of which I'll assume is for the 0-6 age bracket. So $2.475B at 1x. 3/4 of $1.5B for daycare, $1.125B.
3/4 $2.1B for Kelowna Accord at previously accounted 14% INAC externality rate: $220.5M.
3/4 of $620M in social housing to fight homelessness is $465M.
R+D from AMP, 1/2 of $656.25M is $328.125M. Other R+D spending (increased granting agency budgets, etc): 3/4 of $1.945B is $1.45875B.
In addition to the above, the Liberals will match all budget 2008 programmes, so capture all Conservative externalities that aren't post-budget 2008 announcements! These in brackets:
THC decriminalization, $1.2B
Corporate tax externalities: -$1.0352169B
Kelowna Accord externalities: $220.5M
R+D: $1.786875B (+$2.425B)
Anti-homelessness: $465M (+410M)
Foreign Aid: $386.25M (+$631M)
Childcare: $3.6B (+$116M)
Healthcare: $37.5M (+$774.219M)
Environment: $27.78625B (+2.9228B)
THC: $1.2B
(Anti-pandemic: 3x $13M)
(Transit: $1.75B)
$43.515178B of Liberal externalities multiplied by a 102.89296% surplus bonus is $44 774 054 000 in Liberal budget positive externalities. Kind of a cheap shot to match the Conservative budget's externalities, but there weren't many of them anyway.
Liberals claim to reduce corporate tax rate 1% below Conservative projections without detailing when. So I'll assume this happens halfway into their 4 yr budget. 2007 corporate taxes at a 22.12% rate and -$22.899B sum of "good" companies minus sindustries yields $1.0352169B in negative externalities per % corporate tax cut per year.
Ending oil sands tax subsidies, 3/4 of $1.2B is $900M. Green Shift carbon tax revenues of $39.975B with 3/5 of revenues in first three years: $23.985B at 1x. 1/2 of $100M budgeted for pollution control and food safety here, 1/2 in healthcare: 3/4 of $50M is $37.5M. 3/4 of $250M to fight Mountain Pine Beetle is huge; the Conservative plan just focused upon post-beetle economic diversification but this plan has elements like creating buffer-zones around cities to protect high-value trees, like what AB is attempting to protect high-value National Parks trees. Conservatively account this $187.5M at 2x. 3/4 of $575M for green mortgage retrofits at 2x: $431.25M. 3/4 of $370M for clean energy is $277.5M. I don't know enough about freshwater supplies to consider it a high ROI; it is lacking on IRs and in NFLD to my knowledge. Of $400M for a freshwater fund, only 1/6 is for freshwater (farm freshwater), the rest is environmental. And this falls under $690M budgeted for clean water, oceans and natural environment. So 3/4 of $290M and 3/4 of 5/6 of $400M is $467.5M. A $1B AMP fund on pg 16 is only budgeted for $875M on pg 69 under "Manufacturing and Transportation", if they are the same thing. I'll go with the latter total. These investments are stated as green and R+D or manufacturing. So a 1.5x multiplier with 3/4 (1x of 1.5x) tallied here and the 0.5x R+D doublecount tallied 3/4 under R+D. $656.25M. 3/4 of $300M to retrofit boats/trucks with green equipment, $225M.
Liberals have suggested in the past decriminalization/legalization and have agriculture funding that alludes to environmental or productivity advances, but nothing specific mentioned. Also ignoring the 10yr $70B Infrastructure funding as I'm not sure if it is to be funded from bond sales or surpluses.
Increased foreign aid, 3/4 of $500M is $375M. Haitian Lymphatic Filariasis elimination; 3/4 of $15M is $11.25M.
3/4 of 1/2 of $100M for pollution control and food safety under healthcare: $37.5M.
3/4 of $9.9B for increased child-tax benefit, 1/3 of which I'll assume is for the 0-6 age bracket. So $2.475B at 1x. 3/4 of $1.5B for daycare, $1.125B.
3/4 $2.1B for Kelowna Accord at previously accounted 14% INAC externality rate: $220.5M.
3/4 of $620M in social housing to fight homelessness is $465M.
R+D from AMP, 1/2 of $656.25M is $328.125M. Other R+D spending (increased granting agency budgets, etc): 3/4 of $1.945B is $1.45875B.
In addition to the above, the Liberals will match all budget 2008 programmes, so capture all Conservative externalities that aren't post-budget 2008 announcements! These in brackets:
THC decriminalization, $1.2B
Corporate tax externalities: -$1.0352169B
Kelowna Accord externalities: $220.5M
R+D: $1.786875B (+$2.425B)
Anti-homelessness: $465M (+410M)
Foreign Aid: $386.25M (+$631M)
Childcare: $3.6B (+$116M)
Healthcare: $37.5M (+$774.219M)
Environment: $27.78625B (+2.9228B)
THC: $1.2B
(Anti-pandemic: 3x $13M)
(Transit: $1.75B)
$43.515178B of Liberal externalities multiplied by a 102.89296% surplus bonus is $44 774 054 000 in Liberal budget positive externalities. Kind of a cheap shot to match the Conservative budget's externalities, but there weren't many of them anyway.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Daycare externality formula
A Quebec study says taxpayers get back 40% the cost of daycare in the first year as it frees up a mother to work. Presumably this would pay for the full cost of the programme when factoring private earnings. However, I've seen some papers suggest children in daycare might be more irritable. I have my reservations about the papers, but don't have time to study this issue in detail so am conservatively only giving daycare a 1x externality multiplier, when it may in fact be as high as 4x.
I'm also squeezing in Indian Reserve education here too. Children on Reserves graduate high school at 1/2 the rate of other children. My dumb and coarse method of handling this is to consider IR primary education (grades 1-6) to be a 1x externality. So off IR education I don't consider to be a really high ROI, but on Reserve, 1/2 is.
I'm also squeezing in Indian Reserve education here too. Children on Reserves graduate high school at 1/2 the rate of other children. My dumb and coarse method of handling this is to consider IR primary education (grades 1-6) to be a 1x externality. So off IR education I don't consider to be a really high ROI, but on Reserve, 1/2 is.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
THC externality formula
The direct police, court, prison costs of THC criminalization have been estimated conservatively at $400M/yr. Estimated tax revenue foregone with illegalization is $1B/yr. I'll assume decriminalization kills half the former costs and saves society $600M in resources over 3 years that can be freed up to fight rapes and murders. Legalization, $4.2B over 3 years.
Criminalizing the substance makes all other laws a little less just.
Criminalizing the substance makes all other laws a little less just.
Kelowna Accord and other INAC externality formula
http://www.ainc-inac.gc.ca/pr/est/rpp08-09/08-09_INAC_planned_e.html
From this budget's 2007-08 forecast spending, tacking on the 2008-09 $138M water/wastewater expenditure, an INAC annual budget of $7.3746B is attained. The externalities in this budget can be used as a guide to estimating the externailities of expenditures such as Kelowna Accord.
I've previously costed these externaltiies line-by-line, but have lost the record. The total positive externalities of the INAC budget came to just under 14%. So I'll use 14% as my externality multiplier baseline for INAC spending increases such as Kelowna Accord, and reaccount the INAC budget if I have time.
From this budget's 2007-08 forecast spending, tacking on the 2008-09 $138M water/wastewater expenditure, an INAC annual budget of $7.3746B is attained. The externalities in this budget can be used as a guide to estimating the externailities of expenditures such as Kelowna Accord.
I've previously costed these externaltiies line-by-line, but have lost the record. The total positive externalities of the INAC budget came to just under 14%. So I'll use 14% as my externality multiplier baseline for INAC spending increases such as Kelowna Accord, and reaccount the INAC budget if I have time.
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