I'm accounting this Conservative budget (2007, 2006 and other Party's projected budgets to follow) based on differences from J.Flaherty's Oct/2007 Economic and Fiscal Update. Two post Budget 08 initiatives are the diesel excise tax reduction and tobacco phase out. This is the externalities account for differences from Oct/2007 EFU:
The BoC's financial calendar is Apr-Mar, many budget programmes use Julian calendar year, and I'm considering Nov08-Oct11 as my timeframe for when the next government will be in office. I'll arbitrarily shift Conservatives 2008-09 accounting forward 7 months, and assume two year programmes are extended one more year, for a 3 yr timeframe.
Conservatives plan to pay down debt $1.3B 09-10, $3.1B 10-11, and $4.7B 11-12. I'm ignoring new election spending announcements post-budgets for debt purposes as well as revenue from larger than expected bandwidth auctions. Using $456.191B as a baseline federal debt estimate, the Conservatives will reduce debt by 1.99163%. This is divided by existing federal debt interest rate of 7.37% and doubled to yield an externality baseline of 15.033566%, a 1.5x baseline of 22.550349%, etc. For the most part I've yet to estimate broad ROIs so externalities will be multiplied by twice 1.99163%, 1.5x externalities by 3x 1.99163%; paying down debt is a bonus.
Private R+D returns about 17% annually, is a 1x multiplier. $55M SR+ED tax credits "enhancement". $945M research infrastructure. $73.5M grants and research chairs. $20M Gairdner Endowment. $240M research grants. $140M Genome Canada. $150M for Auto Innovation Fund (5yr programme but only considering 3 yrs here). $250M CCS is R+D and enviro. So 2x but I'll account 1/2 in environment when tallying. $300M for CANDU demo and Chalk River not broken down so I'll assume 1/2 is for R+D (nuclear reactors not demonstrated low footprint lifecycles so no enviro doublecount). Counting IT infrastructure as R+D so $64.5M Communications Security Establishment. $45M research streamlining. $15M synchrotron. R+D new wood products, $127.5M. $4.5M ESS pilot (forget what this is). $45M GST-free medical ergonomic stuff at 1x. Work with me, boomers need better ergonomic products so I'm viewing this programme as R+D pilot. $10M CCS for NS and UofC at 2x, 1/2 tallied in enviroment.
Environmental capital is undercosted, is arbitrarily a 1x multiplier. $15M to cleanup and repair harbours to be privatized; 1/2 of this is environmental so 7.5M at 1x. $22M Streamline aquaculture regulations. $99M regulate industrial GHG emissions. $18M Parks police. $31.5M Environment Canada regulators. $50M to cull swine is 2x; hogs are high footprint and arbitrarily assuming this is health 1x benefit too, when tallying. $25M forestry management in towns. -1.8B diesel tax credit (why not subsidize clean trailers or parts instead?!). *NextGen* biofuels fund $500M (not corn!!). $15M biofuel R+D is 2x, 1/2 in R+D. $7.5M accelerated CCA clean energy. $3M biosphere preserves. 1/4 of Gas Tax cash suggested for wastewater so $1.25B at 1x. $36M ocean environmental patrols. $30M ocean shelf mapping, presumably be cleaner under Canadian jurisdiction. $113M over five years to punish chemical spill polluters is $67.8M.
Addressing homelessness is a conservative argument. Contrarily to popular belief homeless people usually utilize higher cost services like prisons, hospitals, emergency shelters; arbitrary 1x multiplier for mental health and housing infrastructure. $110M Mental health commission. $300M Northern Housing Trust.
I learned when honey was branded as a health food in 1980s in USA, consumption increased 3.5x. There is latent potential in branding healthy foods so arbitrarily 1x. $49.5M natural health products safety. $169.5M food and consumer safety action plan. $219k BC farmers markets. $45M enabling accessible fund seems a good way to reduce healthcare costs, 1x. $300M tobacco phase out. $15M combat smoking, a bewildering set discounting formulas accompanies social rates of return here so 1x for now. Safe drinking water on IR $495M (NFLD deficient too).
0-6yr child care returns are off the charts (daycare ROI in 2.5 years publicly and in one year adding private earnings), but I've seen studies claiming daycare raised toddlers have aggression issues. Until I learn toddler development and daycare selection biases I'll arbitrarily assume 1x. Indian Reserve adults have 1/2 the high school graduation rate of off reserve Canadian adults. I'll very dumbly assume 1x for IR primary school as well. $70M over 2 yrs for IR education (0-18 yr old I assume) = $70M over 3 years at 1x. $43M IR prevention models. $3M medic alert bracelets.
UK foot and mouth biolab "leak" was devastating. I'll arbitrarily assume 3x for biolab safety on decreased nightmares alone. $13.5M biolab safety.
Transit is needed infrastructure at high oil prices and environment. So 2x for $500M Transit but add 1/2 to enviro when tallying. Gas Tax cash to cities schedule is 1B, 2B, 2B. 1/4 suggested to transit so $1.25B at 2x, 1/2 in enviro for tally.
I'm arbitrarily using new immigrant remissions to home country as my experts for optimal foreign aid levels. That puts us up to $15B or 16B as an upper limit (nowhere near it) at 1x. $450M Global Fund fight diseases. $100M more for Afghan aid (not like it'd do better in Zimbabwe). $75M for development innovation fund is 2x, 1/2 tallied as R+D. $6M combat child trafficking (if this is for Canada move to childcare).
Foreign Aid: $631M
R+D: $2.425B
Transit: $1.75B
Environment: $1.1228B
Anti-pandemic: 3x $13.5M
Childcare: $116M
Healthcare: $1.074.219B
Anti-Homelessness: $410M
So $7.569519B, multiplied by 1.0398326% equals a positive externality account of $7 871 032 600.
