The Liberal platform: www.liberal.ca/platform_e.aspx, is based on four years and I'm assuming three years for the next minority government, so I'll trim all cuts and spending 1/4 unless platform explicitly states year-to-year differences. Also shifting the 2009-10 financial calendar year backwards 5 months to assume Nov-2008 to Oct-2011 time period. Liberals assume a $1.305B surplus over 4 years along with a $12B contingency fund. But this counts $2.24B in additional revenue not recognized by the BofC budget; I'll stick with BofC estimates. Over 3 years this is a $8.29875B surplus, but $1.7B to nebulous infrastructure spending for the last year assuming BofC $4.7B surplus estimate, so $6.59875B to pay down debt. Divided into the $456.191B federal debt baseline is 1.44648%. The 1x externality multiplier debt repayment bonus will be 2.89296%. Liberals have committed any surpluses over $3B to infrastructure, but since they haven't listed the $1.7B portion of the BofC projected 2011-12 for infrastructure on their budget's financial table, and haven't prioritized infrastructure spending (only some of which I consider high ROI), I'll ignore this.
Liberals claim to reduce corporate tax rate 1% below Conservative projections without detailing when. So I'll assume this happens halfway into their 4 yr budget. 2007 corporate taxes at a 22.12% rate and -$22.899B sum of "good" companies minus sindustries yields $1.0352169B in negative externalities per % corporate tax cut per year.
Ending oil sands tax subsidies, 3/4 of $1.2B is $900M. Green Shift carbon tax revenues of $39.975B with 3/5 of revenues in first three years: $23.985B at 1x. 1/2 of $100M budgeted for pollution control and food safety here, 1/2 in healthcare: 3/4 of $50M is $37.5M. 3/4 of $250M to fight Mountain Pine Beetle is huge; the Conservative plan just focused upon post-beetle economic diversification but this plan has elements like creating buffer-zones around cities to protect high-value trees, like what AB is attempting to protect high-value National Parks trees. Conservatively account this $187.5M at 2x. 3/4 of $575M for green mortgage retrofits at 2x: $431.25M. 3/4 of $370M for clean energy is $277.5M. I don't know enough about freshwater supplies to consider it a high ROI; it is lacking on IRs and in NFLD to my knowledge. Of $400M for a freshwater fund, only 1/6 is for freshwater (farm freshwater), the rest is environmental. And this falls under $690M budgeted for clean water, oceans and natural environment. So 3/4 of $290M and 3/4 of 5/6 of $400M is $467.5M. A $1B AMP fund on pg 16 is only budgeted for $875M on pg 69 under "Manufacturing and Transportation", if they are the same thing. I'll go with the latter total. These investments are stated as green and R+D or manufacturing. So a 1.5x multiplier with 3/4 (1x of 1.5x) tallied here and the 0.5x R+D doublecount tallied 3/4 under R+D. $656.25M. 3/4 of $300M to retrofit boats/trucks with green equipment, $225M.
Liberals have suggested in the past decriminalization/legalization and have agriculture funding that alludes to environmental or productivity advances, but nothing specific mentioned. Also ignoring the 10yr $70B Infrastructure funding as I'm not sure if it is to be funded from bond sales or surpluses.
Increased foreign aid, 3/4 of $500M is $375M. Haitian Lymphatic Filariasis elimination; 3/4 of $15M is $11.25M.
3/4 of 1/2 of $100M for pollution control and food safety under healthcare: $37.5M.
3/4 of $9.9B for increased child-tax benefit, 1/3 of which I'll assume is for the 0-6 age bracket. So $2.475B at 1x. 3/4 of $1.5B for daycare, $1.125B.
3/4 $2.1B for Kelowna Accord at previously accounted 14% INAC externality rate: $220.5M.
3/4 of $620M in social housing to fight homelessness is $465M.
R+D from AMP, 1/2 of $656.25M is $328.125M. Other R+D spending (increased granting agency budgets, etc): 3/4 of $1.945B is $1.45875B.
In addition to the above, the Liberals will match all budget 2008 programmes, so capture all Conservative externalities that aren't post-budget 2008 announcements! These in brackets:
THC decriminalization, $1.2B
Corporate tax externalities: -$1.0352169B
Kelowna Accord externalities: $220.5M
R+D: $1.786875B (+$2.425B)
Anti-homelessness: $465M (+410M)
Foreign Aid: $386.25M (+$631M)
Childcare: $3.6B (+$116M)
Healthcare: $37.5M (+$774.219M)
Environment: $27.78625B (+2.9228B)
THC: $1.2B
(Anti-pandemic: 3x $13M)
(Transit: $1.75B)
$43.515178B of Liberal externalities multiplied by a 102.89296% surplus bonus is $44 774 054 000 in Liberal budget positive externalities. Kind of a cheap shot to match the Conservative budget's externalities, but there weren't many of them anyway.
